SELF-DRIVING CARS, THE OPPORTUNITIES AND LIMITS

Self-driving Cars an $87 Billion Opportunity in 2030, Though None Reach Full Autonomy; 92% of autonomous vehicles will have only simple driver-assist features like adaptive cruise control; software developers will benefit most…

May 20, 2014 (Lux Research)

“Carmakers and technology developers building self-driving cars will create an $87 billion opportunity in 2030, with software emerging as the biggest winner, even though a fully autonomous driverless car will remain elusive, according to Lux Research…Automobiles with relatively modest ‘Level 2’ features such as adaptive cruise control, lane departure warning, and collision avoidance braking will be the mainstay, accounting for 92% of autonomous vehicles in 2030. More advanced ‘Level 3’ cars using high-resolution special maps, demonstrated by Google and Mercedes-Benz, will gain only an 8% share while no fully autonomous ‘Level 4’ car will hit the market…The opportunity in autonomous vehicles will initially be led by the United States and Europe, but China will grow rapidly to claim a 35% share of the 120 million cars sold in 2030, accounting for revenues of $24 billion, against $21 billion for the U.S. market and $20 billion for Europe…The software opportunity in autonomous cars will grow rapidly from $0.5 billion today to $10 billion in 2020 and $25 billion in 2030…[And] a vehicle that can truly drive itself in all conditions will not be on the road by 2030 in the likely scenario. In the most optimistic scenario, a technical breakthrough will enable a gradual roll out…” click here for more

click to enlarge

Tweet